Josh Appelbaum examines where early smart money is leaning for Vikings-Bears, 49ers-Packers and Eagles-Rams.
Week 11 of the NFL regular season is in the books and now we turn our attention to Week 12. Let’s examine where early smart money is leaning using our
VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes. We will also reference our new Circa Sports bet splits to get a better understanding of where the sharp action is leaning.
The Vikings (8-2) have won three straight games and just brushed aside the Titans 23-13, covering as 6-point road favorites. On the other hand, the Bears (4-6) have lost four straight and just came up short against the Packers 20-19 but managed to cover as 6-point home dogs. This line opened with Minnesota listed as a 5-point road favorite. The public thinks this line is way too short and 72% of spread bets are laying the points with the Vikings. However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen Minnesota fall from -5 to -3.5. Some shops even touched as low as -3. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Bears plus the points, as the line has moved in their favor despite Chicago being the unpopular side. The Bears are receiving 28% of spread bets but 43% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Chicago has buy-low value as a dog on a losing streak against a sell-high favorite on a winning streak. Divisional dogs getting 3.5-points or more are 16-9 ATS (64%) with a 22% ROI this season. At Circa Sports, which caters to sharper players, the Bears are only getting 13% of spread bets but 62% of spread dollars, further evidence of smart money in their favor. We’ve also seen some sharp money hit the under, dropping the total from 40.5 to 39.5. The under is only receiving 25% of bets but 52% of dollars, a sharp bet discrepancy. Outdoor divisional unders are 241-197 (55%) with a 6% ROI since 2021. The forecast calls for high 40s with cloudy skies and 8-10 MPH winds at Soldier Field. The Bears and Vikings are both 7-3 to the under this season, tied for 2nd-best in the NFL.
The 49ers (5-5) just saw their two-game win streak come to an end, falling to the Seahawks 20-17 and losing outright as 6-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Packers (7-3) have won five of their last six games and just edged the Bears 20-19 but failed to cover as 6-point road favorites. The early opener for this game was 49ers -1 on the road. We quickly saw this line flip to Packers -1.5 and then rise up to Packers -2.5. Essentially, we are seeing sharp “dog to favorite” line movement in favor of Green Bay, as the line has steamed in their favor without any buyback on San Francisco. Green Bay is only receiving 39% of spread bets, making them a rare contrarian favorite with “fade the trendy dog” sharp action. The Packers have value as a short favorite in a high total game (47.5), with the more expected points scored making it easier for the favorite to cover. Those looking to follow the sharp move but wary of now laying points around a key number could instead elect to play Green Bay on the moneyline at -140. At Circa Sports, the Packers are receiving 50% of moneyline bets but 97% of moneyline dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet discrepancy. The 49ers have a lengthy injury report, with QB Brock Purdy, OT Trent Williams and DE Nick Bosa all questionable.
The Eagles (8-2) have won six straight games and just took down the Commanders 26-18, covering as 4.5-point home favorites. Similarly, the Rams (5-5) have won four of their last five games and just beat the Patriots 28-22, covering as 4-point road favorites. This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the short chalk with the Eagles. However, despite receiving 81% of spread bets we’ve seen Philadelphia remain frozen at -3. Some shops have even fallen down to -2.5. Normally, when a team is receiving such lopsided support you would see them rise up from -3 to -3.5 or -4. The fact that we haven’t seen the line move (or even dip down to -2.5), signals a sharp line freeze and sneaky reverse line movement on Los Angeles, as the oddsmakers refuse to raise the line and hand out a better price to contrarian Rams bettors. Los Angeles is only receiving 19% of spread bets in a heavily bet Sunday Night Football showdown, offering notable “bet against the public” value. Primetime dogs getting 2.5-points or more are 117-97 ATS (55%) with a 5% ROI since 2020. Los Angeles has buy-low value as a “bad” ATS team (4-6) against a sell-high “good” ATS team (6-4). If you miss the +3 and still want to go contrarian, the Rams could be worth a look in a Wong Teaser (+2.5 to +8.5), which passes through multiple key numbers. We could also be looking at a higher scoring game here, as the total has risen from 47.5 to 49.
